The Great Upheaval: Higher Education's Past, Present, and Uncertain Future by Arthur Levine & Scott J. van Pelt

Author:Arthur Levine & Scott J. van Pelt [Levine, Arthur & Pelt, Scott J. van]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: education, Higher, history
ISBN: 9781421442570
Google: Hq46EAAAQBAJ
Publisher: JHU Press
Published: 2021-09-14T23:57:46.905263+00:00

Artificial Intelligence

There is an old joke that the factory of the future is likely to be a machine, a person, and a dog. The dog would be there to make sure the person didn’t touch the machine.

Artificial intelligence is self-driving cars; computers that play chess, write newspaper articles, read X-rays, and compose music; robots, drones, and digital assistants. But it is also many things that have become part of our daily lives—the GPS, ATM, and ticket vending machine. Artificial intelligence is the capacity of machines to perform tasks traditionally requiring human intelligence—reasoning, perception, problem solving, decision making, and learning. Machine learning is the ability of computers to progressively improve their performance from data rather than being specifically programmed. It’s how Alexa and Siri improve their capacity to comprehend human language and how driverless cars gain sophistication in negotiating the roadways.

An inevitable consequence of artificial intelligence is automation, the process by which technology replaces people in tasks traditionally carried out by human beings. The dramatic decline in manufacturing jobs in the latter half of the twentieth century was actually correlated with an increase in manufacturing productivity, as more than four out five of those jobs were automated out of existence, which slashed labor costs and increased manufacturing flexibility, efficiency, consistency, and output (Hicks & Devaraj, 2015).

Today, automation is spreading beyond low-skilled jobs requiring a high school diploma or less. Research indicates that somewhere between 5 percent and 47 percent of all jobs will be lost to automation in the next ten to twenty years (Manyika et al., 2017; Frey & Osborne, 2013). The effects will not be equally distributed: Frey and Osborne’s analysis also showed that the low end of the income spectrum is at much greater risk. Eighty-three percent of jobs with hourly wage under $20 will face pressure from automation, compared to 31 percent of jobs in the $20–$40 range, and only 4 percent for those in $40 and higher bracket. A McKinsey study went beyond job titles to examine tasks actually entailed in specific jobs. It concluded 51 percent of all working hours could be automated (Manyika et al., 2017). It found jobs entailing routine work at all levels of education and in all professions are likely candidates for automation. This includes cashiers, clerical support, and administrative assistants but also doctors, lawyers, and journalists.

At the moment, the jobs that are most likely to be resistant to automation, beyond those requiring expertise in the design and development of automation systems, involve nonroutine physical and manipulation skills, creative intelligence (e.g., creating and valuing), and social intelligence (e.g., negotiating, persuading, and caring) (Frey & Osborne, 2013). These overlap significantly with twenty-first-century skills discussed earlier.

So here is what we know. First, some industries and occupations are likely to be automated out of existence, such as truck driving and delivery services, which employs over 3.5 million workers (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020). Guesstimates of its demise vary from a decade to twenty-five years, but trucking does not exist in isolation, and the industries that support it, such as restaurants and hotels, will be affected as well.

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